It must be the first Saturday in May, or in other words, time for the 149th edition of the Kentucky Derby, “The Run for the Roses.” Twenty 3-year-old colts are expected to break from the gate at 6:57 p.m. Saturday before a raucous, and sometimes overserved, crowd of more than 120,000 and millions more watching on NBC.
This is also the time when the most asked question around Louisville is: “Who you like in the Derby?”
Glad you asked.
It’s time for Rick’s Picks, but remember, last year I guaranteed a favorite would win the Kentucky Derby, and 80-1 longshot Rich Strike was the first to cross the finish line. The losing tickets being tossed in the air under the Twin Spires that day resembled a ticker-tape parade in New York City.
History shows there’s always reason to back a longshot in the Derby. Consider that since 2018, no favorites have won, and three of the last four winners have gone off at double-digit odds: 80-1 (Rich Strike), 27-1 (Mandaloun), and 65-1 (Country House).
It’s common for longshots to win the Derby because it’s the hardest race to handicap since 3-year-olds typically don’t run 1 1/4 miles, how skittish certain horses get during the post parade and navigating through the traffic created by a 20-horse field.
Here are my selections:
Win: Tapit Trice (5-1). Don’t look for Tapit Trice to be near the lead since he likes to come from behind. Let’s just hope he doesn’t fall too far behind and he’s unable to navigate his way around the track as other horses tire.
Tapit Trice has won his past four starts with the most recent coming in the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes on April 8 at Keeneland.
He’s ridden by veteran jocker Luis Saez, who rode Maximum Security to a Kentucky Derby win in 2019, but was later disqualified. It’s time for redemption.
Tapit Trice is trained by eight-time Eclipse Award winner Todd Pletcher, who has sent 62 horses to the Kentucky Derby, including three this year.
He will break from the No. 5 post, the one that has produced 10 Kentucky Derby winners, the most of any gate in the history of the event.
Place: Forte (3-1). I tried to throw out Forte, the favorite. I really did.
But his resume was too impressive.
Forte has won six of seven starts and has posted Grade 1 victories in the Hopeful, Breeders’ Futurity, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and most recently in the Florida Derby.
He will be ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr., who is seeking his first Kentucky Derby victory, and trained by Pletcher, a two-time Derby winner.
Show: Mage (15-1). Go ahead and call me a homer. But it’s hard not to root for a horse with a local connection. Mage is owned by a syndicate that includes Rick Gleason and his wife, Helen Stevens-Gleason, a Middletown couple who own 200 shares.
Mage is ridden by Javier Castellano and trained by Gustavo Delgado.
Plus Mage is breaking out of the No. 8 post, my daughter’s favorite number. His sire is Good Magic and my God son’s name is Michael Good and he’s an accomplished magician.
Best long shot: Confidence Game (20-1). Confidence Game is one of only three horses in the field to win at Churchill Downs. He has four Churchill races on his record, two of them wins.
And if it rains on Saturday and the track turns muddy, remember that Confidence Game won his last start, the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes, over a sloppy track at Oaklawn Park.
Confidence Game is ridden by James Graham and trained by Keith Desormeaux.
KENTUCKY DERBY INFORMATION
WHAT: 149th running Kentucky Derby
WHEN: 6:57 p.m. Saturday
WHERE: Churchill Downs, Louisville, Ky.
HOW TO WATCH: NBC
HORSES WITH POST POSITIONS, JOCKEY, TRAINER, MORNING LINE ODDS: 1. Hit Show (Manny Franco, Brad Cox) 30-1; 2. Verifying (Tyler Gaffalione, Brad Cox) 15-1; 3. Two Phil’s (Jareth Loveberry, Larry Rivelli) 12-1; 4. Confidence Game (James Graham, Keith Desormeaux) 20-1; 5. Tapit Trice (Luis Saez, Todd Pletcher) 5-1; 6. Kingsbarn (Jose Ortiz, Todd Pletcher) 12-1; 7. Reincarnate (John Velazquez, Tim Yakteen) 50-1; 8. Mage (Javier Castellano, Gustavo Delgado) 15-1; 9. Skinner (Juan Hernandez, John Shirreffs) 20-1; 10. Practical Move (Ramon Vazquez, Tim Yakteen) 10-1 (SCRATCHED); 11. Disarm (Joel Rosario, Steve Asmussen) 30-1; 12. Jace’s Road (Florent Geroux, Brad Cox) 15-1; 13. Sun Thunder (Brian Hernandez, Ken McPeek) 50-1; 14. Angel of Empire (Flavien Prat, Brad Cox) 8-1; 15. Forte (Irad Ortiz, Jr., Todd Pletcher) 3-1; 16. Raise Cain (Gerrardo Corrales, Ben Colebrook) 50-1; 17. Derma Sotogake (Christophe Lemaire, Hidetaka Otonashi) 10-1; 18. Rocket Can (Junior Alvarado, Bill Mott) 30-1; 19. Lord Miles (Paco Lopez, Saffie Joseph) 30-1 (SCRATCHED); Continuar (Ryusei Sakai, Yoshito Yahagi) 50-1 (SCRATCHED). 21. Cyclone Mischief (Joel Rosario, Dale L. Romans) 30-1; 22. Mandarin Hero (Kimura Kazushi, Terunobu Fujita) 20-1; 23. King Russell (Rafael Bejarano, Ron Moquett) 50-1.
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