Answering those questions is Garman’s job. He’s in his first season as the Cincinnati Reds’ minor-league pitching coordinator.
Some questions, however, aren’t ready to be answered.
Question No. 1: How soon will Burns go from the 2024 No. 2 overall draft pick from Wake Forest and into the Reds’ rotation?
No one knows. And if they have a notion, they’re not sharing it publicly.
“Everybody’s wanted to talk about Chase the whole time, but he only gets to pitch once a week,” Garman said. “We can only do so much.”
What Garman can say is that he, senior pitching coordinator Bryan Conger, and assistant minor-league pitching coordinator Todd Naskedov (another former Dragons pitching coach) will collaborate with each other and team pitching coaches. They will discuss Burns’ progress and next steps like they do for all pitchers.
“Anytime you are that type of prospect it’s probably difficult to walk into your org for spring training or your affiliate team and and just be one of the guys,” Garman said. “He’s still just a new face to the org, and so like anybody in that situation who was drafted last year there’s a learning curve. That’s where we’re at with him. But he’s been very coachable.”
What everyone associated with the Reds agrees on is that Burns, who was promoted from Dayton to AA Chattanooga this week, can crank his fastball up to 100 mph or more. And that his slider is a 92 mph vertical thrill ride that makes batters throw up their hands. Off-speed pitches, meant to be deceiving, aren’t supposed to travel at that speed.
“People talk about separation of velocity, and he still has that at a 92 mile-an-hour slider, which is unbelievable to say,“ Garman said. ”I don’t really know what else to tell you, other than when you talk to the catchers, or you talk to somebody who faced him, they just go, ‘That pitch is unhittable.’ It doesn’t matter what level of hitter you’re talking about. It doesn’t matter what level of catcher you’re talking about."
Two days before the first of his three starts in Dayton, catcher Logan Tanner said Burns’ slider is probably the best he’s seen. Scouts rate it his No. 1 pitch.
“Not many people can throw it 90 with the movement he’s got on it,” Tanner said. “It’s a crazy pitch, and I’m ready for everybody else to see it.”
In three starts for the Dragons — the first of his pro career — hitters saw plenty of Burns’ now-you-see-it-now-you-don’t pitch that he likes to say drops off the table. Burns struck out 20 in 11 2/3 innings. Other than some first-inning settling in that led to four earned runs over his second two starts, Burns dominated High A hitters in the Midwest League.
Question No. 2: Are two pitches enough for Burns to continue to excel? Or will his dabbling with off-speed pitches, such as a changeup, be necessary?
“What can we do? Where can we go next?” Garman asked. “He hasn’t proven that he needs anything else yet. Time will tell. Double A will tell us. Triple A will tell us more. The big leagues will ultimately decide.”
A year ago Rhett Lowder, another first-round draft pick from Wake Forest, began his pro career in Dayton with five strong starts. He was promoted to Chattanooga and allowed three, five and seven runs in his first three starts. He settled down, had a couple more rough starts, and finished with a 4.31 ERA in 16 starts.
Lowder’s next move was AAA Louisville and a scoreless six-inning start. Then, because of injuries, Lowder joined the Reds and wowed with a 1.17 ERA and two wins in six starts.
Another question is one Garman has a more firm answer to.
Question No. 3: What happens if Burns encounters struggles similar to the ones Lowder had with Chattanooga?
“We want to see if there is something that can get pointed out, if the next level can kind of poke a hole in his game,” Garman said. “We need to embrace the those challenges and those struggles, because they’re not failures. They’re teaching points, especially for a guy who’s this early in his career. So it really comes down to don’t resist the outcome. Embrace it and let it teach you what your next move is.”
As the inevitable lessons must be learned and the growing pains must be managed, Garman has seen enough to believe Burns can navigate the huge expectations following him from team to team and start to start.
“He’ll certainly be able to handle it,” Garman said. “The biggest thing is just continuing to encourage him to embrace the feedback. Don’t use it as like a measuring stick. That’s really probably the best advice that I would ever have for a guy like that.”
For now, Garman will observe Burns from a distance, watching video and reading reports. Most of his season will be roving between Dayton (where he is this week), Chattanooga and Louisville. His next in-person look at Burns will be in the middle of May. He will no doubt have suggestions and affirmations.
And answer more questions.
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