“I think for some sectors in the economy and some classes of individuals, the recovery is here and it is going to continue to grow. But I don’t think that is the case for everybody. The classes that would be reliant on food stamps, I’m not sure their prospects are improving much,” she said. “Coming out of the recession, the upper income levels of the distribution have improved their situation while the bottom has lost ground, which is why there are more people on food stamps.”
Year end numbers for 2013 show that nearly half of the 14 economic indicators studied by the Journal-News are at all-time highs and or lows, depending on the type of indicator.
The Journal-News compiled numbers for bankruptcies, residential building permits, deeds, foreclosures, food stamps, investment income, liens, property conveyance tax, property tax, sales tax, car and boat titles, retail vendor licenses and unemployment rates.
Food stamp recipients have jumped 76 percent since 2007, the year before the bottom fell out of the economy. Government investment income dropped from $11.8 million in 2007 to $1 million last year.
On the flip side, unemployment dropped by 2.5 percent to current levels of 6.8 percent. Residential building permits have nearly doubled from a seven-year low in 2011, and property conveyances taxes shot up 57 percent.
FOOD STAMPS
The growth in the number of food stamp recipients has given some reason to question the overall positive results.
Jerome Kearns, executive director of the county’s Job and Family Services Department, said he isn’t surprised by the 76 percent increase since 2007. His office shells out about $6 million a month in food assistance and 13.6 percent of the county’s population received food assistance last year. People who had never before received public assistance flocked to his office after the economy tanked, he said. And some still do, because their personal economic situations haven’t completely rebounded, he said.
“What we are seeing is people’s wages haven’t really changed,” he said. “People are still struggling. Maybe where there were two incomes in the household, it went down to zero and now we are seeing one come back into the household. Wages have remained flat.”
County commissioners Don Dixon and T.C. Rogers on the other hand believe the high food stamp recipient numbers have more to do with abuse of the system than the economy. Dixon said there are too many public assistance programs and it is too easy to qualify. That is why the commissioners recently approved adding a third deputy to the detail charged with ferreting out food stamp fraud.
“I believe that the application process has been relaxed, I also believe there are groups which are showing people how to get the food stamps. Which has made it easier,” Rogers said. “But with us hiring another deputy to further our food stamp fraud program, I think word is going to get out that if you’re not supposed to be on them, we’ll find out about it.”
INVESTMENT INCOME
Investment income appears to be another glaring negative indicator, but County Administrator Charlie Young said an almost $11 million drop between 2007 and last year is deceiving. He said the county today has more money invested than in 2007, which is a good thing, and since interest rates and regulations rule investments, the county doesn’t have absolute control in that area.
“That’s a reflection of interest rates,” he said. “It’s good for the economy in some respects that our income investment is way down. If our amount invested was one-third down, that would indicate potential problems.”
SALES TAX REVENUE
On the upside, the county’s sales tax revenue is on the rise, jumping $5.2 million since it bottomed out in 2010. Young said the $41.3 million and $35 million figures from 2007 and 2008 respectively are deceiving because the county had an additional quarter percent on the sales tax rate to pay for the new 800 megahertz radio system. The additional percentage came off the books after the first quarter of 2008.
“The sales tax (number) is tremendously good news,” Young said. “That just drives right to the heart of how consumers feel about their personal finances and their willingness to spend their discretionary money.”
Maria Karvelas and her husband Konstantine have owned the Greek Isles restaurant in Liberty Twp. since 2007. Maria said during the Great Recession they had “over qualified” people with degrees knocking on their door looking for work. They had to cut payroll by shortening employees’ hours and she and her husband also had to take turns behind the counter. Karvelas said things are “getting a little bit better.”
‘It’s improved but it’s far from where it was when we first opened,” she said. “They’re still careful (with their money).”
BUILDING PERMITS
Economic indicators involving property also point to recovery. Residential building permits have risen 93 percent since they bottomed in 2011 with only 301 permits pulled. Likewise, foreclosures have fallen from a high of 3,166 in 2010 to 1,753 last year, a 45 percent drop. Property conveyance taxes — monies collected every time a property changes hands — are up almost to pre-recession levels and up 57 percent from a 2010 low of $2.55 million.
Todd Hall, of Todd Homes of West Chester Twp., said his homes usually run in the $150,000 to $325,000 range and in the past year-and-a-half he’s mainly been selling homes for $240,000 to $260,000. For the first time in seven years he said home builders will have a “Spring market” this year, when buyers come out en force.
“We don’t hear the dirty word “R” anymore nearly as much as we were,” he said. “I think everything has definitely stabilized. People are starting to come out and be able to look at some houses and there are financing options out there for people to buy new houses.”
Things are looking more healthy on the commercial side of things as well. Bulldozers have been crawling all over the 100-acre tract of land on Liberty Way at Interstate 75, that is slated for the $300 million mixed use retail center by Steiner + Associates. Liberty Twp. trustee board President Christine Maticic said the developer first approached the township in 2006 about the mega development, then took a hiatus until about a year-and-a-half ago.
“They said hey, time out, the economy’s gone bad, we may be back,” she said. “Well, they came back.”
PROPERTY TAXES
Property taxes have shown steady increases over the past seven years rising from $384 million in 2007 to $442.3 million last year. County Auditor Roger Reynolds said growth and new tax levies and bonds account for the increase. Voters said yes 67 times to tax levy and bond requests by various taxing entities since 2007 — not all included tax increases — and rejected another 28 requests.
Dixon, who tsaid he ends to be somewhat of a pessimist where the economy is concerned, said you can “just feel” that things are getting better.
“Overall I think the economy is generally getting better,” Dixon said “It’s going to be a while before it gets back all the way, it’s a long way from being back, but on a scale of one-to-10, I’d say we’re at a five.”
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