Lakota is also the largest suburban school system in southwest Ohio — and among all Greater Cincinnati area districts — is second only to Cincinnati Public Schools in number of students.
Earlier this month, a district-contracted firm — John W. Mercurio and Associates — presented his findings on student enrollment projections to the Lakota Board of Education, according to a statement released by district officials.
John Mercurio told the board’s facilities committees the difference between an enrollment projection versus an enrollment forecast. A projection considers historical data for estimating while a forecast is focused on future events and factors to calculate estimates.
“The most accurate enrollment studies are a hybrid of both,” he told board members.
Lakota officials are considering sweeping plans for its older school buildings, including scenarios of renovating or replacing some of its 23 schools spread throughout Liberty and West Chester townships.
In the fall, district officials also received an enrollment projection study from the Ohio Facilities Construction Commission (OFCC) that focused on different growth variables and data sources.
To calculate future enrollment, Mercurio said he reviewed kindergarten enrollment, the migration of students — those coming and leaving the district — and the graduating classes.
“The most influential factors driving the Lakota enrollment over this forecast period are the generational cycle and the economic, or real estate, cycle.”
According to his study, trend data for Lakota show a growth in grades K-6, grades 7-8 remain steady and a decline in grades 9-12.
He predicts enrollment will have a slight increase over the next two-three years and then it will begin to drop before increasing again. This pattern is due to generational cycles, which are patterns in the number of people born in different time periods.
Mercurio explained that the housing market goes through cycles of approximately 18-20 years. The current cycle, which started after 2008, is expected to end soon. When this happens, fewer families might move into the district, resulting in fewer new students.
His conclusions, according to district officials, noted that while the OFCC study predicts Lakota’s enrollment will reach approximately 19,000 students in 2033, Mercurio believes enrollment will decline to 16,000 before rebounding and increasing again. This is because he predicts that 2029 will be the low point for the housing market cycle.
Lakota Schools Spokeswoman Betsy Fuller said “while the results of the two enrollment studies differ slightly, they both show an enrollment bubble moving through our already over-crowded schools.”
“Building a fiscally responsible master facilities plan is a priority for the board and district,” said Fuller.
More information on Lakota’s school buildings and the district’s Master Facilities Plan is available on the Lakota website.
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