Last month’s sales decreased 31.6% and 37.4% in Butler and Warren Counties, respectively, compared to January 2022. New listings decreased 19.4% and 20.7% respectively, too.
In December, Warren County Auditor Matt Nolan attributed lower market activity to the resurgent highs of 30-year-fixed mortgages, which peaked on average at 7.1% in November, according to FreddieMac data. Since then, those rates have come down only slightly to level around 6%.
It’s been a year since the national average interest rate began its marked ascent in January of 2022, which means, up until this point, year-over-year comparisons in the housing market have compared sales in dramatically different markets facing different trajectories.
For example, prospective buyers entering January 2023 were looking at mortgage rates around 6.1%, compared to the 3.1% average mortgage rate for prospective buyers entering January 2022 — a near 97% increase. Prospective buyers in October 2022 faced a 6.7% interest rate, while buyers in October 2021 faced a 3.0% interest rate — a 122.6% increase over the course of 12 months.
This dichotomy should change if national interest rates hold relatively steady over the next few months, as year-over-year comparisons will gradually begin to compare the current high-interest market to gradually-higher-interest market of a year prior.
For now, year-over-year comparisons show the stark change that higher interest rates can have on housing market activity. In Butler County and Warren County alike, January saw those dips in sales and new listings, while houses sat on the market for longer.
Interest rates haven’t had a negative impact on local house value, though, as the median sale price rose from about $305,000 to $330,500 in Warren County (up 8.4%) and from about $235,000 to $238,500 in Butler County (up 1.5%).
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