Health commissioner: Butler County ZIP code coronavirus ranking somewhat misleading

Credit: DaytonDailyNews

While Butler County’s 45011 ZIP code has seen the most coronavirus cases in the state in recent weeks, that ranking is misleading, according to the county’s health commissioner.

The most populous ZIP code in Ohio is Butler County’s 45011, and it has the second-most COVID-19 cases since the onset of the pandemic and the fourth-most in the past two weeks, according to the Ohio Department of Health. As of Tuesday, there have been 4,366 total COVID-19 virus total cases and 425 cases over the past two weeks.

The 45011 ZIP code encompasses most of Hamilton and portions of New Miami, Fairfield and Fairfield Twp.

The ZIP code has been at the top of these lists for weeks, but that ranking is deceptive, said Jodan Luttrell-Freeman, epidemiologist for the Butler County General Health District.

“Hearing that is startling and is cause for concern,” Luttrell-Freeman said of the ZIP code’s total number of cases. “However, while it is true in the literal sense, it would be misleading to say that the zip code has been the hardest hit in the state. This is because 45011 is the most populated ZIP code in the state by a large amount.”

The 45011 ZIP code has a population of more than 71,000, while the second-most populous ZIP code (Grove City’s 43123) has a population of about 65,500.

Butler County Health Commissioner Jenny Bailer said it’s better to evaluate the status of COVID-19 in a community, or ZIP code, by the rate. The 45011 case rate per 100,000 population is 6,100.5, according to the state health department. That ranks 347th out of nearly 12,000.

“A rate is a better metric to look at because it takes into account the size of the population in question,” she said. “A rate per 100,00 persons would be a more meaningful metric to look at rather than the number of cases alone.”

Four other Butler County ZIP codes — 45044, 45069, 45013 and 45014 — are in the top 30 of total COVID-19 cases, and all five are within the top 40 of total cases over the past two weeks.

The per-capita ranking shows the Monroe ZIP code 45050 leading Butler County with 854.9 total cases per 100,000 population over the past two weeks, which ranks within the top 100, according to the Ohio Department of Health.

Butler County’s 45067 (Trenton and the surrounding areas) is outside the top 100 in per-capita rankings, while the 45014 (Fairfield and the surrounding areas) and 45011 ZIP codes are outside the top 300 in per-capita rankings over the past two weeks. Middletown and Liberty Twp.’s 45044 ZIP code is outside the top 400.

On Dec. 14, the state had begun receiving the first of the two U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s emergency use authorization COVID-19 vaccines, which have been inoculating frontline healthcare workers, the elderly and those at nursing care facilities.

Both vaccines require two doses, and more than 70,000 Ohioans have received the first dose of the two-dose vaccinations, as of Tuesday. Nearly 1,600 of the first-of-two-shot vaccinations distributed have been in Butler County.

Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine said in the next phase of administering the vaccine will be those who are 65 years and older, those living with severe congenital, developmental, or early-onset medical disorders. Additionally, adults working in Ohio’s schools will have the option to receive the vaccine.

Despite the vaccine being administered, health experts say until more than half the population can receive the vaccine, safety protocols like hand-washing, mask-wearing and social distancing should still be followed to curb the spread of the virus.


FACTS & FIGURES

Below are the number of total novel coronavirus cases and per-capita cases for the past two weeks among the five most-populous ZIP codes in Butler County:

45011: 425 total cases, 594.8 per 100,000 population

45044: 305 total cases, 557.8 per 100,000 population

45013: 283 total cases, 524.7 per 100,000 population

45069: 288 total cases, 563.4 per 100,000 population

45014: 279 total cases, 636.3 per 100,000 population

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