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Projecting stronger growth in the national economy in 2014 than what was seen in 2013, Fifth Third Bank strategist John Augustine also called out weaknesses in Ohio’s economic growth at a business forecasting event in Hamilton Friday morning.
The rough winter will slow down commerce the first part of 2014, said Augustine, chief economic and market strategist for Cincinnati-based Fifth Third. Things are expected to pick up in about six weeks, and the national economy is expected to grow at its long-term average pace this year, he said.
U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product — the estimated value of goods and services produced adjusted for inflation, currently estimated to be more than $17 trillion — has grown the past 50 or so years at an average annualized rate of 3 percent. The last 25 years, GDP has grown at a rate of 2.5 percent, Augustine said.
However, the onset of the economic recession at the end of 2007 and beginning of 2008, slowed U.S. economic growth to annualized rates of about 2 percent or less.
The point: “We’ve been growing below average since the Great Recession,” Augustine said. “The expectation is we go above average” in 2014 and 2015.
Ohio closed 2013 with higher unemployment of 7.2 percent than the country as a whole, according to figures from Ohio Department of Job and Family Services. Nationally, December’s seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was 6.7 percent.
“We need some kind of economic catalyst in Ohio this year,” Augustine said. “One thing we know about our state is we need more people and we need more young people.”
Catalysts that could lift Cincinnati’s economic recovery include manufacturing growth (Augustine’s example was more GE Aviation-made jet engines) and more planes flying in and out of Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport, Augustine said.
“One of the biggest deals in Cincinnati is the airport,” he said.
Augustine spoke Friday at Greater Hamilton Chamber of Commerce’s 14th annual Groundhog Economic Forecast Breakfast at Courtyard by Marriott Hamilton.
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